2027 Budget – Fiscal Council ratifies key projections: 2% growth in 2026, 2.3% in 2027

2027 Budget – Fiscal Council ratifies key projections: 2% growth in 2026, 2.3% in 2027

The Hellenic Fiscal Council on Monday ratified the macroeconomic forecasts included in the 2027 Draft State Budget and considered that the fiscal targets are achievable.**

At the same time, it found that estimates comply with the relevant numerical fiscal rules, while warning of risks stemming from uncertainty over investment, international energy prices and the global environment.

More specifically, the Fiscal Council gave a positive assessment of the forecasts underpinning the 2027 Draft State Budget.

Diverging views over growth estimates**

For 2026, the Ministry of National Economy and Finance’s forecast for real GDP growth was revised down to 2%, while the Fiscal Council maintained its own estimate at 1.9%. The Greek economy recorded growth of 1.9% in the first half of 2026.

For 2027, the Draft Budget is based on investment growth of 7.9%, private consumption growth of 1.5% and public consumption growth of 1.4%. The Fiscal Council considers achieving this pace of investment crucial, as it is significantly higher than the available forecasts from international organisations.

The Ministry of National Economy and Finance forecasts real GDP growth of 2.0% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The Fiscal Council estimates growth at 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with its forecast for next year remaining more cautious than that of the Draft Budget.

Investment and consumption to drive growth**

Investment and private consumption are expected to be the main drivers of growth. According to the Council, the Draft Budget projects gross fixed capital formation to increase by 7.7% in 2026 and 7.9% in 2027. Private consumption is expected to rise by 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

The HFC pointed out, however, that the investment forecast for 2027 is higher than corresponding estimates by international organisations.

Inflation remains above eurozone levels**

Inflation is projected at 3.6% in 2026 before easing to 2.4% in 2027. The Fiscal Council noted that Greece continues to face stronger inflationary pressures than the eurozone, while energy prices rose by an average of 10.6% in Jan-Aug ’26.

Primary surplus targets seen as achievable**

On the fiscal front, the primary surplus is projected at 3.6% of GDP in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, compared with 4.9% in 2025. The General Government balance is expected to remain in surplus, at 0.6% of GDP in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027.

The Fiscal Council said that “ achieving the revised target for the primary surplus remains feasible”, provided that no exceptional fiscal pressures arise and fiscal prudence is maintained. Overall, the Council considers that the macroeconomic forecasts “fall within an acceptable range”.

Public debt set to fall, but remains highest in EU**

Public debt, which stood at 146.1% of GDP in 2025, is projected to decline to 136.8% in 2026 and 128.8% in 2027. The Fiscal Council stressed, however, that debt remains the highest in the European Union and requires continued fiscal vigilance.

Geopolitics, energy and Recovery Fund transition pose risks**

The main risks relate to geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates, energy prices and the completion of the Recovery Fund at the end of 2026.

Investment momentum in 2027 will depend on a successful transition to new European and national financing instruments.

Source: ANA – MPA**